A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that divided the country and unleashed turmoil, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the political, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly split population where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but very few politicians or activists want to engage with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unity or the status quo. Both composes two pieces that aim for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and societal data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass identity markers, levies, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they support unification but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to recognise unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government should determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless official who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified arguments, he commented. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will in the end not succeed but both parties has has important lessons to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
