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Against the backdrop of the considerable disarray following the US strikes on Venezuela, the apprehension of leader Nicolás Maduro, and the declaration by Donald Trump that the US will “control” the country and “reclaim the petroleum resources”, one thing is clear – these actions create a deeply alarming precedent.

A Dark Legacy and an Unprecedented Move

The United States possesses a dark record of meddling, military incursions, and control in the region, but the recent overnight operation saw its first major military attack on the soil of a South American nation. “The preeminence of America in this region is now beyond dispute,” Mr Trump declared.

The choice to militarily strike another state and capture its head of state – mere days after he publicly sought an off-ramp – carries even broader implications. We all have reason to be worried.

Deep Instability for a Nation in Crisis

Venezuelans have endured a repressive, kleptocratic and incompetent regime under Mr Maduro, commonly thought to have rigged the previous presidential vote. They now face profound uncertainty at best. Mr Trump has suggested that Mr Maduro’s deputy, Delcy Rodríguez would follow US instructions, and brushed aside rightwing opposition leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a viable alternative.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the interim president, has so far sounded notes of defiance – and other factions of the decapitated regime are even more hardline.

From Global Policeman to International Outlaw

A man who won power pledging to stop foreign wars now says he is “willing to put soldiers into combat”. Rebranding the Department of Defense as the Department of War was more than posturing. He no longer views the world’s superpower as a global policeman; he is transforming it into a lawless actor.

He believes that the US’s might allows it to do as it wishes with little consequence: witness the military actions against Nigeria and Iranian installations. He claims that control of Venezuela's petroleum means this latest episode “will be financially free”.

An Attack Without Legal Justification

George W. Bush invaded Iraq on a lie. But this illegal attack came absent any United Nations mandate or authorization from lawmakers; key legislators received no advance notice and say they were given false information in briefings. Mr Trump is not trying to twist international norms, but to obliterate them.

Disregard the implication this carries to leaders in Moscow, Beijing, and beyond, and question the future path of the United States. While the raid allegedly resulted in the deaths of 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, no US personnel died. Mr Trump’s growing sense of invincibility will likely encourage additional military gambits.

Flimsy Justifications and Underlying Drivers

No one buys the pretext that this is concerning narcotics. Venezuela is only a secondary pathway for cocaine; Mr Trump recently granted clemency to the former Honduran president Juan Orlando Hernández for related criminal convictions. Mr Trump himself has stated plainly that he is motivated by the allure of petroleum resources as well as machismo, the ideology of some in his administration, and the appetite for triumphalism as his support at home declines.

A Muted Global Reaction and Institutional Irrelevance

The international response, especially in Europe, has – with a few principled deviations – been alarmingly quiet. That’s not due to Mr Maduro’s sins, but fear of Mr Trump’s wrath. The forceful statement from UN Secretary General António Guterres was welcome, but this episode underscores the UN's diminishing clout.

Mr Trump’s anti-interventionist domestic base could potentially force him to redirect his gaze inward – but escalating insurance prices, financial discontent and ongoing controversies fuel his desire for external drama.

Barely 12 months into his time in office. Other governments may live to repent if they stay silent now, considering the potential next target.